National Scan, Inc., Sells Radio Frequency Inventory Tags. Monthly Sales For A Seven-Month Period Were As Follows

1. National scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as follows:

 

Month Sales
  (units)
Feb 19
Mar 18
Apr 17
May 20
Jun 19
Jul 22
Aug 20

 

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  1. Forecast September sales volume using the naïve approach.

 

  1. Forecast September sales volume using a linear equation. a=17.43, b = 0.46.

 

  1. Forecast September sales volume using a five-month moving average

 

  1. Forecast September sales volume using a weighted average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June.

 

  1. Forecast September sales volume using Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20, assuming a March forecast of 19.

 

2, A dry cleaner uses exponential smoothing to forecast equipment usage at its main plant. August usage was forecast to be 88 percent of capacity; actual usage was 89.6 percent of capacity. A smoothing constant (Alpha) of .2 is used.

 

a.Prepare a forecast for September.

 

b.  Assuming actual September usage of 92 percent, prepare a forecast for October usage.

 

 

 

3. A cosmetics manufacturer’s marketing department has developed a linear trend equation that can be used to predict annual sales of its popular Hand & Foot Cream.

 

Ft  =80+14t

 

Where

 

Ft   Annual forecast in sales (bottles)

 

t= 0 corresponds to 1990

a.    Predict annual sales for the year 2006 using the equation.

 

 

 

4.The manager of travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual and predicted values are as follows:

 

 

 

Period Demand Predicted
1 129 124
2 194 200
3 156 150
4 91 94
5 85 80
6 132 140
7 126 128
8 126 124
9 95 100
10 149 150

a.    Compute MAD for the 5th  period

 

b.    Compute MAPE for the 10th period